There is Another

Around this time every year we hear a little anecdote: Derek Jeter, in his eleven seasons in the Major Leagues, has always known October baseball. The yarn is often accompanied by an insuation that Jeter is a Midas, turning more to gold than just his glove — that Jeter imparts some magic that carries his team to autumnal greatness.

But the streak is longer than Jeter's tenure.

The tale we do not hear is about another Yankee with an even longer October run. He's mentioned often, revered without pause, but his magic mark on the team's post-season persistence has seldom, if ever, been cited.

There’s another stalwart, another champion, who has played a critical role in escorting the Yankees to and through Octobers for twelve consecutive years, starting with his rookie season in 1995.

Mariano Rivera.

Playoff Roster Prophecy

Tonight the Yankees secured a spot in the playoffs for the 12th consecutive year. In celebration, I now list (because I know the world awaits) my predictions for the team’s 2006 playoff roster.

With two weeks to prepare (I know it’s really just 10 games, but the “two week” thing will help with an alliteration later, so bear with me), Torre has tough decisions to make. But I've seen him assemble 11 other post-season rosters, so I'm familiar with his preferences. I'd bet I'm wrong about no more than one of these picks.

Position Players
Jorge Posada
Jason Giambi
Robinson Cano
Derek Jeter
Alex Rodriguez
Melky Cabrera
Johnny Damon
Bobby Abreau
Miguel Cairo
Craig Wilson
Bernie Williams
Hideki Matsui
Gary Sheffield
Sal Fasano

Notes:

• Wilson is not my first choice for a first-base backup (Andy Philips is), but he also plays outfield, and he can serve as the team’s third catcher (which Torre will deem important).
• If Sheffield is not on the post-season roster, it will be either because he hits dreadfully in his forthcoming on-the-job rehab, or because the Yankees have already decided they’re done with him.
  
• Cairo’s experience nudges him ahead of Nick Green as backup infielder. The latter does have two games of post-season experience (with the Braves), but never had an at-bat.
  
• There’s no way Williams’ experienced bat and post-season records are left off Torre’s roster. Williams will likely be relegated to pinch-hitting, but he’ll be there.
  
• The Yankees will boast their strongest post-season bench since 1997.

Pitchers
Mike Mussina
Randy Johnson
Chien-Ming Wang
Jaret Wright
Mariano Rivera
Scott Proctor
Kyle Farnsworth
Ron Villone
Mike Myers
Brian Bruney
Darrell Rasner

Notes:

• Wright’s fortitude and scrappiness have earned him the role of fourth starter.
  
• Rasner is 3-0 with a 2.04 ERA in four games with the Yankees. Two more similar September appearances, and the lack of any obvious alternatives, will make him a dependable option for long reliever.

Wildcards
Torre has tended to use players who were in the midst of hot streaks, so a solid final fortnight (there it is!) could get one or two of these players promoted to the post-season:

Nick Green—The fill-in as a fill-in when Cairo was disabled. Since the latter returned from his injury, Green has still been the primary utility infielder; does that mean Torre is hunting a Green October?

Andy Phillips—An excellent choice as a late-inning defensive replacement at first base. Unfortunately for him, Wilson can fill the same role (though not as adeptly).

Jeff Karstens—He’s green. (Not Nick green ... just, you know, rookie green.) But a 4.11 ERA is not shabby for an emergency starter, and he could be a valuable asset as a long reliever. He’ll play in October only if Rasner doesn’t.

Octavio Dotel—As of now, there’s no chance he’ll be playing in any more meaningful games in 2006. But if he suddenly becomes unhittable, Torre may reconsider. (He’s unhittable now, but that’s because he pitches mostly balls.)

Jose Veras—He’s young and inexperienced, but has allowed only two earned runs in nine appearances.

Aaron Guiel—He’s helped the team since being picked up a few months ago, but he’ll see October only if Sheffield’s bat is broken (that’s a euphemism), or if another outfielder gets hurt.

Most Valuable Premise

As the last Sox/Yanks series of 2006 commenced, we were graced with a final off-field dialog between the storied rivals. This time it involved David Ortiz, Derek Jeter and the merits of the MVP award.

Much hay has already been made over the quotes, so I won't add much to the harvest. But the one aspect I have not seen or heard covered is this: Ortiz was wrong not just in his conclusion, but in his very premise.

"It doesn't matter how much you've done for your ballclub," Ortiz said, "the bottom line is, the guy who hits 40 home runs and knocks in 100, that's the guy you know helped your team win games."

It doesn't matter how much you've done for your ballclub. No, David. The spirit of the award entails exactly that.

Baseball's MVP is about value and valor, not power and production. The latter are often ingredients of the former, but they're not always the whole recipe.

In most seasons, Jeter's .341 average, 13 home runs, 93 RBI, 106 runs, 31 stolen bases and .975 fielding percentage (as of last night), while impressive, would not be enough for a league MVP award. But this year is different. In a season when the Yankees sent three all-star hitters on extended visits to the disabled list, and during a summer when the team's best power hitter suffered from malignant lack of production, their captain’s numbers reflect a clear and undeniable value: The Yankees owe much of their 2006 success to Jeter’s consistency and leadership.

He’s done a lot for his ballclub. And that does matter.

Percentage Points

I've heard talk this summer of baseball "percentage points."

First, a couple months ago, when the Yankees and Red Sox were tied for wins but not losses, the media described the Yanks as being in first place "by percentage points." Last night, when Derek Jeter and Joe Mauer were tied for the league's best batting average, television announcers portrayed Jeter as being "percentage points" ahead of, then behind, Mauer.

Small margins are big in baseball. An inch is often the deciding factor between failure and success, and sometimes between a loss and a win. One slow step out of the batter's box; sliding to the left rather than right; stretching for a throw rather than stepping — all of these have decided plays, determined outs, altered games.

Even baseball's biggest statistical ladder — the batting average — is the comparison of numbers that are fractions of percentage points different. A .280 hitter and a .320 hitter will typically have vastly dissimilar paychecks. Yet their rate of hitting is only four percentage points apart. During an average 28 at-bat week, that's a difference of only one hit.

One hit per week: The difference between an all-star and a fill-in; between a Wheaties box cover and a jersey number the team store doesn't bother selling; between a Hall of Famer and the future answer to a trivia question.

By definition, percentage points are tiny numbers. But in baseball, they're titanic.

Most Valuable Jeter

Derek Jeter briefly overtook the lead in the American League batting race last night. For a few innings, his average was a point higher than the Twins' Joe Mauer's, which has stood atop the standings for most of the deep season.

By the end of last evening, Jeter was back in second place, finishing the night at .343 to Mauer's .345. But methinks they'll soon switch again.

Mauer is a rookie catcher. His inexperience combined with a catcher's common late-summer wilt will probably cause his batting average to slightly and slowly continue to decline. As for Jeter, his month-to-month consistency should help him keep his average steady for a further four weeks. Thus, Jeter may finally win a batting title.

Many have expressed the opinion that Jeter should also earn the American League MVP award this year. He's not the traditional type to win: He doesn't hit 40 home runs, nor does he rack up 130 RBI. But he's not supposed to do those things — he's a No. 2 hitter. His job is to get on base and score runs. The former he's done at a .421 clip, the second highest on-base percentage of his career; the latter he's done already 97 times in 2006, easily on pace for his tenth 100-run season in 11 years. And those are just the recorded stats; Jeter's most important skill is one there's no number for: He knows how to win.

I certainly wouldn't argue against the notion of Jeter for MVP — he’s the spark in the engine of one of the best baseball teams of this era. But this award is further from Jeter’s reach than the batting title.

Baghdatis' Agony Saves Agassi

I was sitting courtside at the US Open last night with other media, covering the second-round match between Andre Agassi and Marcos Baghdatis. After Agassi won the second set, I left the court, stowed my gear in my locker, packed my shoulder bag, and sat and watched a television in the media room. I awaited the last point, after which I planned to step out the door, drive home, and get a good night of sleep to prepare for my early-morning return to the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center.

Then Agassi lost the third set.

I wandered out to the food court, bought some popcorn, and leaned against a light post to watch the fourth set. Agassi lost that one, too.

So I went back to my locker, unloaded my gear, and returned to my courtside seat — at midnight — just in case Agassi lost. And Agassi is downright lucky that he didn’t.

Agassi didn’t dominate the first two sets, but he sure controlled them. The third and fourth sets were a tribute not so much to Agassi’s advanced age, but to Baghdatis’ youthful fortitude. The fifth set showcased both players’ desire to prolong their presence in the tournament. But Baghdatis limped, and Agassi slumped. If not for the former, today Agassi would be a former tennis pro.

Despite Baghdatis badly aggravating a thigh cramp by lunging for a wide ground stroke late in the fifth set, Agassi still had trouble clinching the win. If Agassi couldn’t finish off a hobbling Baghdatis, how could he have fended off a healthy one?

Agassi knew the truth: An opponent's cramp extended his career.

After the match, Agassi sat in his courtside chair amidst an uncharacteristic air of fear. He looked like a speeding driver who just saw the car behind him get pulled over by a cop.